Now that it is time for the mid-term review of the EU Commission’s White Paper ”European transport policy for 2010: Time to decide”, I have been asked by Europe’s World to answer the question: Are transport goals “mission impossible”?

 

It would have been be easy to reply with a flat and unequivocal “Yes”, because the mission of harmonizing Europe’s fragmented and inefficient transport systems is a very complex one. But in fact I believe we have no alternative to the present approach. A common transport policy is a vital element in the European project as a whole, and the authors of the Treaty of Rome seem to have been well aware of that back in 1957. We have to create an efficient transport system if we really want to be competitive, to support the European economy, integrate the new member states, reduce the cost and human toll of traffic accidents and meet our environmental challenges.

 

A large number of ambitious projects are now in progress, covering all modes of transport. To a very great extent they are leading in the right direction, and I think it will be interesting when we come to evaluating the mid-term review to get an overall idea of progress.

 

So from a general point of view, my answer to the “mission impossible” iquestion is “No”. But I nevertheless have a fundamental objection to the whole concept of separating transport growth from economic growth. I personally doubt that the White Paper’s intention of reducing total transport growth, while shifting freight from trucks to rail, is compatible with the vision of economic growth in the EU’s Lisbon Agenda.

 

The White Paper’s goal of reducing transport growth from the expected 50% to 38% between 1998 and 2010 receives poor support in the transport sector and from industrial development analysts. Since 1995, transport growth in EU-25 has exceeded GDP growth, and road transport has grown more than all inland transport modes in the same period. A number of new studies point in the same direction. About a year ago, several well-known European transport research institutes jointly published a major study, entitled “Capacity 2015”, which predicted that goods transport on the North Western European road network will increase in the following 10 years by 75%, even with common road toll of 15 cents per kilometre. The figure for rail transport indicated an increase of 26%, which is far more than the rail network can presently absorb as we have already reached congestion on 20% of today’s rail network, according to the EU White Paper.

 

The current logistics behaviour of European business is in any case developing in a different direction than the White Paper intended. The elimination of intra-European trade barriers has facilitated economies of scale, making factories in the EU more productive. There are therefore fewer but more specialised factories, resulting in longer distances between supplier and markets with more cross-border traffic. Needless to say, all this is good for European integration and competitiveness, even if it compounds Europe’s transport problems.

 

European industry’s search for greater efficiency means that it’s cutting back on its need for working capital through improved processes, shorter lead-times, better customer contact and smaller inventories. Again, these new logistics concepts are putting pressure on European transport policy. The advanced industrial techniques that European companies are adopting include just-in-time, lean production, integrated product development and sourcing from best supplier rather than choosing a local supplier. And because of their efficiency and flexibility, trucks are playing an increasingly important role in this pattern of industrial development.

 

Europe’s present situation, with congestion on 10% of our roads is already alarming enough. Just a few weeks ago Zoltan Kazatsay, the European Commission’s Deputy Director-General for Transport and Energy, said that Europe must either build more roads or restrict their use. To restrict the use of the transport system would, of course, be detrimental to European competitiveness.

 

Restricted truck-transport growth would in turn create new economic and policy pressures. But if instead we strive to find the most efficient solutions, we will be enhancing the competitiveness, integration and economic cohesion of the EU. This will mean more jobs for Europeans and less competition from other regions of the world to threaten Europe’s economic growth.

 

This does not mean that I am advocating a “business-as-usual” scenario as a sound and navigable course for Europe. We in the EU cannot progress without combating traffic congestion and resolving our basic environmental and safety problems.

 

The trick in any revised European transport policy must be to simultaneously promote transport efficiency, safety and ecology. The measures outlined in the White Paper support development in this direction, but instead of setting different transport modes against each other, the starting point should be to look at how each transport mode can be optimized for its most suitable purpose and made compatible with the next link in the chain. I do not think we can afford to restrict efficient transport modes through regulation and then expect other transport modes to undertake tasks for which they are poorly suited.

 

A relatively easy measure for improving road-transport efficiency would be to implement what we at Volvo Group call the European Modular System, (EMS). The EMS concept means that on selected roads two longer vehicle combinations would replace three shorter long-haul trucks. This would result in fewer trucks on the road without losing road transport volume. Of course, this would be good for the environment, for transport efficiency, congestion and even safety.

 

The EMS concept means that the regulation length of a vehicle combination would be extended in the EU from 18.75 to 25.25 metres. Long-haul transport vehicles length of this are already common in Sweden and Finland and full-scale testing is currently being conducted in the Netherlands.

 

If EMS were extended to suitable roads in the rest of Europe, as many as 300.000 trucks could be freed from duty, and even more in years to come as the transport sector grows bigger still.

 

This would be one step towards more efficient transport, while reducing the negative impact. But the list of problems connected to road transport and to other transport modes is a long one, and it requires political vision and cooperation at all levels and among all stakeholders to achieve substantial improvements, without jeopardizing our competitiveness.

 

We should not be too pessimistic, however. There are a lot of available technologies that can help us to improve all aspects of transport, provided they are promoted correctly. Hybrid drivelines with improved fuel efficiency and reduced noise levels are a promising solution, as is the shift from fossil to renewable fuels that can already be achieved using existing diesel engine technology as a platform. Many people are still unaware of the diesel engine’s capacity for transforming renewable fuel into energy.

 

Transport is an extremely positive asset for society, even if its negative aspects mean that it is often exposed to heavy public criticism. It’s easy enough to be annoyed at a rumbling highway, if you are standing beside it rather than travelling on it. We tend to forget that transport is crucial to finding a job, to choosing our lifestyle, and to buying services and commodities in a competitive market.

 

So, let us go back to the initial question: are the transport goals a mission impossible? Still my answer is “No”, but I do believe that the goals themselves have to be revised continuously.