The transport industry is hurtling towards an unpredictable future. We face an untenable situation over the physical and political availability of oil, coupled with all the menacing aspects of climate change. Climate change analysts predict a temperature increase of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius over the next hundred years if carbon dioxide emissions, from oil, coal and gas use continue unabated.
No single fuel or engine type will alone be able to solve the energy and environmental problems of the future. We must leverage current technology to focus on researching a range of alternatives. The time has come for all stakeholders to join forces and produce a collective vision of the possible routes for change. We must accelerate developments in commercially viable technological solutions encompassing infrastructure, vehicles and fuels. We should also look beyond uniquely technological solutions to such other factors as the value of better driving, which can considerably improve energy efficiency across a whole vehicle fleet.
The fastest and most cost-effective method of reducing the environmental impact of transport is to make it more efficient. Bigger vehicle combinations offer one solution and intelligent transports systems another. The European Modular Systems, for instance, is a system which allows greater amounts of goods to be transported on cross-border routes. This is an efficient transport system resulting in transport assignments being reduced by as much as 33%, and emission levels by 20%.
IT systems are now available for vehicle and transport management that make it possible to improve utilisation of existing transport capacity by up to 10%. This means in practice that more cargo can be moved with fewer trucks, resulting in reduced exhaust emissions and less congestion.
Volvo has developed an efficient transport solution in its hybrid technology for heavy vehicles. Hybrid trucks and buses offer fuel savings of up to 35%, while at the same time greatly reducing emissions. The diesel engine in our hybrid solution can be operated using bio fuels, offering transport without any carbon dioxide emissions at all. This kind of matching of energy alternatives and technology is paving the way for interesting long-term sustainable transport solutions.
Developments like the hybrid engine demonstrate that real progress is now being made. The engines of today and tomorrow are far cleaner than before, and will soon reach emission levels that are acceptable in the long-term. However, despite this progress, because the need for transport is growing world-wide total emissions are not declining. The reduction in emissions from each vehicle is not enough to compensate for the total increase.
How can our global problems be resolved? There is only one solution, and that is to eliminate our dependence on oil. There are many alternatives to present-day fossil fuels. The alternative we choose depends, among other things, on availability, environmental impact and fuel efficiency. Different alternatives can be compared by analysing the total energy efficiency, and the emission of greenhouse gases measured over the entire life cycle, from production to final application. Using this “well to wheel” analysis to evaluate and test different fuels, Volvo has found that Dimethylether (DME) is one of the best contenders for a longer-term viable fuel for commercial vehicles. DME provides a range of advantages over other alternatives including being energy efficient, CO2 neutral and ensuring low exhaust emissions. In the short-term, diesel will continue to dominate and in the mid to long-term, natural gas and biogas will be used at a regional level.
Once there is the political will to hasten the transition to alternative fuels, EU-level subsidies and incentives could become effective tools. But it is essential that these subsidies should be directed towards fuels that are able to function without long-term subsidisation. Nor should these incentive measures undermine competitiveness in the transport industry. Incentives to make alternative fuels more competitive must be implemented at an international level, since the existence of local rules will distort competition. It is also important to reach consensus at an international level on which fuels should be made available for long-distance transport. A truck must be able to refuel across borders, so if different countries within the EU choose to promote different fuels by means of taxes, it will restrict the development of a truly harmonious alternative fuel market. Conversely, there are vehicle classes, city buses or garbage trucks that can operate on local fuels, but here quality must be uniform if they are to fulfill emissions requirements.
The mere existence of the necessary technology and fuel is not enough for an alternative fuel to become established. We also need an economically viable and reliable long-term supply of the fuel, and the infrastructure for its distribution.
So what is the key to the future? The whole world is attempting to reduce oil dependence and there is an urgent need for alternatives. In principle this is positive; the technology exists for using alternative fuels but we need an in depth discussion of which fuels society should invest in. We must continue to invest in a raft of technologies and we must have a vision of where we need to go. Nor should we forget the crucial human element in all this. The most difficult hurdle is usually persuading all the relevant players to collaborate on creating the technologies, services and functions needed to put us on the road to a sustainable future.
Stefan Lorentzson
Head of Volvo Group Representation in Brussels
