EUROPE

Responding to Ireland's "no": To confound the populists we must strengthen the EU’s democratic appeal

Autumn 2008

After the lengthy period of navel-gazing triggered by the French and Dutch rejections of the EU’s Constitution, many had hoped that the Lisbon treaty would finally allow the EU to move on and effectively re-engage with the rest of the world. Those hopes were dramatically dashed by Ireland's "no" vote, and a dangerous factor behind has been the growing tendency in a number of member states to place national interests above those of the Union, and indeed above those of the wider world.

The basic principles of solidarity and integration now seem, therefore, to be under threat. Member states continue to abide by these principles only as long as they serve the national interest, and many governments are even beginning to question the added value of the whole European project. This trend had become all too obvious when a number of member states proposed dropping common European symbols like the flag and the anthem at the time of the negotiations on the constitutional treaty. This no doubt reflected blatant political calculations that voters tend to favour their own national symbols over those of the European Union.

 MATTERS OF OPINION


Ireland’s missing voters – who abstained and why

Two-thirds (67%) of those questioned in a Eurobarometer survey of 2,000 people conducted immediately after Ireland’s recent referendum on the Lisbon treaty said the “no” campaign on the treaty had been more convincing, and this view was even held by a majority of the “yes” voters (57%). More than half those polled said that they only decided whether to vote “yes” or “no” in the final weeks of the campaign and 15% decided on the day itself.

Over half those who did not vote in the referendum said this was because they didn’t understand the issues, and more than half of these (54%) said they would have liked more information from the Irish government.

Ireland’s young voters were especially reluctant to participate in the referendum; more than twice as many in the 18-24 year-old age group abstained than among the over-55s (64% compared to 31%). Fewer than half of those interviewed who were students or unemployed had voted (40 and 49%, respectively), compared to a higher-than-average turnout among the self-employed (61%) and retired people (67%).

There was a marked difference in voting between age groups: nearly two-thirds (65%) of young people aged 18-24 voted “no” in the referendum, compared with fewer than half (42%) of the over-55s.





http://www.gallupworldpoll.com/ 

Many politicians still use the EU as a scapegoat for unpleasant decisions. But the Union lacks the capacity to respond quickly to accusations made by national populists, so negative messages often remain unchallenged. That makes it easy to blame the EU for all of the problems afflicting member states, leaving national politicians to take the credit for positive developments.

But given the scale of today’s global problems – such as famine in Africa, the price of oil and food, and the climate change challenges – this shift in priorities at the national level is nothing more than an act of negligence. There is something unreal about national politicians calling for a stronger Europe in the world while simultaneously opposing a common foreign policy.

It is the populists on both the far right and the far left that profit most from these tendencies. Yet their actions are actually working against the wider democratic process. The apparent demand in Europe for greater democracy, – through national referenda on EU issues, for example, starts to look absurd when a decision by less than 1m people in a single member state can dictate both the rate of progress, and the general direction of the Union as a whole.

The Irish “no” will, of course, scarcely be a catalyst for breaking-up the union, but it certainly strengthens the separatist forces that already exist within the EU. Europe à la carte has received a major boost from the Irish vote, so it now seems likely that in five years time the overall structure of the EU will still be based around the internal market, while a smaller group of member states will be cooperating more closely in areas such as foreign and defence policy. The likelihood of a multiple-speed Europe can only be avoided by holding another referendum in Ireland.

Meanwhile, the ratification process must and will continue. As to the Irish political establishment, it will have to consult its people over the future of Ireland’s relationship to the EU. This process will need to highlight the risk Ireland runs of being marginalised within the EU. The Dublin government will therefore need to submit proposals aimed at avoiding this, if that indeed is what the Irish people want.

Europe’s leaders will in the months ahead need to establish the basis for a more citizen-oriented approach to policymaking. This should be factored into the election strategies of Europe's political groups ahead of mid-2009 elections to European Parliament. A substantial commitment from national political parties to work with their European counterparts will be of crucial importance, for the lack of such a commitment has been one of the greatest weaknesses of EU-level politics.

The EU is clearly an elite project. It was conceived and developed by some of the most visionary minds in recent political history, at a time when politicians were still admired. Now, European politicians must step up their efforts to bring the European project closer to the citizens, whatever the outcome of the current institutional crisis. This is vital if we are to avoid leaving the field open to the populists, and if we are to win the argument that yet closer integration is essential to the future of Europe. It is equally crucial for the credibility of national politics – often more criticised than is the EU itself – and which cannot on their own resolve the many challenges of our times; cooperation between the EU’s member states is the only way Europe can have a meaningful impact on world affairs.


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