The strategic importance of EU enlargement was underlined by a number of events last year, and that means the context for discussing enlargement is very different today from even half a year ago.
In the first place, the global financial crisis will have a profound and long-lasting impact on the real economy, and thus on the general political atmosphere. If this crisis shows anything, it is that the global economy in general, and international financial markets in particular, are now so integrated that only stronger global governance and more concerted action will do.
The financial crisis has also shown how much south east Europe is already being integrated into the European Union. The region's emerging economies are among the most dynamic economies in Europe, and are becoming a major destination for EU exports. This underlines the fact that for Europe's economic revitalisation enlargement is part of the solution, not part of the problem.
MATTERS OF OPINION |
Balkan citizens still trust the church more than government
Gallup’s ongoing Balkan Monitor survey showed that citizens of the western Balkans countries put far more trust in religious organisations than in their governments or political parties. Religious groups ranked top in terms of trust in four of the seven countries, with the exceptions being Kosovo and Albania where NATO was the most trusted institution.
Newly-independent Kosovo and Montenegro were the only territories where a majority ofrespondents spoke positively (53% and 55% respectively) about their government's performance. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, 67% disapproved of the government. Croatians and
Albanians showed similar disenchantment, with 44% and 43% respectively voicing disapproval.
http://www.gallupworldpoll.com/ |
The questions over the Lisbon treaty's ratification also weigh heavily these days on the minds of Europeans. The financial crisis is showing that the EU is essential to the welfare of its citizens; we need to make it stronger and even more effective and democratic in terms of global governance.
Last summer's Georgian crisis forced a re-think of our paradigm; Europe today faces security and stability challenges on its eastern doorstep that many thought had disappeared with the cold war. That's one of the reasons the Commission proposed last December an ambitious new chapter in the EU's relations with its eastern neighbours. Called the Eastern Partnership, it responds to the EU's eastern neighbour's desire to move closer to the European Union, and also makes it plain that is in the EU's own interest because it will contribute to the development of stability, better governance and economic development on our eastern borders.
Even though the context in which we are discussing EU enlargement is very different from that of six months ago, our enlargement policy remains based on the renewed consensus agreed between EU leaders at the end of 2006. This renewed enlargement consensus underlines the strategic value to the Union of the whole process, while ensuring the Union’s capacity to function. The policy's cornerstone is conditionality – progress along the road to EU membership is only possible if the countries involved are making progress towards fulfilling the EU's accession conditions.
Europe's gradual and carefully managed enlargement process has yielded steady if somewhat uneven progress by countries of the western Balkans. The region has clearly moved on from its post-war reconstruction phase towards pre-accession and integration, and has turned away from its nationalist past towards a European future. Where then do matters stand today? Croatia's accession negotiations have entered a decisive stage, and the EU has presented a conditional "roadmap" that gives still more rigour and structure to Croatia's preparations. But it must be seen as an encouragement, not a blank check. What it means is that if Croatia can meet all the conditions, it is now possible that it will be able to reach the final stage of accession negotiations by the end of this year. The ball is therefore now firmly in Croatia's court. |
Last summer's Caucasus crisis underlined the importance for the EU of Turkey – both for our stability and security and for economic and energy reasons, but also in terms of the much wider concern of bridging great civilisations. In the meantime, if Turkey is to meet the conditions for EU accession, its reform programme needs to be seriously revitalised. The accession negotiations have been proceeding at a steady pace, but only a modest one.
MATTERS OF OPINION |
Everyone agrees, organised crime hampers Balkan governments
Only a minority of people polled throughout the western Balkans felt their governments were doing enough to fight organised crime. Again, citizens of Croatia and of Bosnia and Herzegovina were the most critical of their government's actions, with 78% and 74% respectively saying not enough was being done to tackle the “mafia”. However, half of Macedonian citizens thought their administration was doing enough, with just a third having an opposing view.
http://www.gallupworldpoll.com/ |
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia achieved candidate status three years ago, and since then it has made good progress on judicial and police reform and continued to consolidate multi-ethnic democracy by implementing the Ohrid Agreement. But these good results have to some extent been overshadowed by shortcomings on the political criteria which are key to the start of formal accession negotiations. If this challenge can be overcome, though, the country has the potential needed to achieve further progress this year. It and other countries in the region are also working on fulfilling the conditions for visa free travel. This is an important issue of for all citizens of the western Balkans, and especially young people who would like to travel freely and get to know the EU better, and the hope is that the most advanced countries could achieve this during the course of this year.
Montenegro is sometimes spoken of in Brussels as 'the quiet surprise" of the western Balkans. I welcomed its formal application for EU membership last December because since its independence in 2006 it has adopted a new constitution, made good progress on key reforms and signed and implemented its Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU. On top of that, it has played a stabilising role in the region.
Albania is in a rather similar position. It too has made steady progress on reforms, including economic ones. Albania signed its Stabilisation and Association Agreement with the EU back in 2006 and is now looking ahead to the next stage this year. Albania has come a long way, but of the many challenges that remain, not the least is fighting organised crime and corruption and ensuring that its elections are conducted in accordance with international standards. But Albania has come a far way.
The first half of last year, meanwhile, saw important progress in Bosnia and Herzegovina leading to the signature of its Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) and last June's start of its visa dialogue. The challenge for the country's political leaders is to achieve the sort of consensus that has delivered progress on EU integration elsewhere in the region, and it's also time that EU-related reforms moved to the top of the agenda.
In November of last year, EU High Representative Javier Solana and I jointly outlined the EU's role in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The EU is ready to reinforce its presence there to ensure a smooth transition, but only after Bosnia and Herzegovina has met our conditions for the closure of the Office of the High Representative. In other words, the time has come genuinely to move away from the era of the Dayton Agreement of 1995 into a new Brussels era. It is in the country's interest to become fully empowered and responsible of its own direction, and the prospect of its European future will be both driver and anchor of this crucially important stabilisation process. |
Serbia's new government has made EU integration and the accompanying reforms its key priorities. Serbia has a major role to play in the region, and thanks to its strong administrative capacity its progress towards the EU can be accelerated and candidate status conferred just as soon as all the necessary conditions are met.
In the Commission's view, the mid-2008 arrests of former Bosnian Serb police commander Stojan Župljanin and his political chief Radovan Karadžić represent important milestones in Serbia's cooperation with the ICTY war crimes tribunal in The Hague. Serbia has now done enough for the EU to go ahead with implementing the trade-related parts of the SAA it signed last summer. Serbia should therefore be allowed to build on the momentum this would create, and EU integration made tangible enough for Serbia to embark on a large number of reforms. The implementation of the Interim Agreement would clearly help, rather than hamper the Serbian political leadership's willingness to cooperate fully with the ICTY.
A decision to implement the Interim Agreement will not change the fact that full cooperation leading to the arrest of the last two remaining fugitives – Ratko Mladić and Goran Hadžić – remains a condition for further progress.
Kosovo will this year remain a focal point, but it needs to deliver on its commitment to becoming a democratic and multi-ethnic society. The EU is committed to helping secure peace and stability in Kosovo, and to support its economic development, and by the autumn we will be presenting a feasibility study on this.
Last year was a difficult year in the western Balkans. The region is not being sparred the economic consequences of the global financial crisis, and there remains a very real danger of fresh instability at a time when Kosovo's future status is being resolved. But these repercussions need not be destabilising. The European prospect has once again acted as a compass that helps countries in the region to navigate and move ahead on a peaceful and reformist track; these reforms continued throughout the year, with each country advancing according to its own merits and capabilities.
Of late, we’ve got into the habit of seeing EU enlargement in terms of south-eastern Europe, but what about our north-western corner? The day should come when the Norwegian people decide to apply to join the EU, I’ll be among the first to welcome them once the necessary entry conditions have been met. Iceland is geographically more distant from the EU than Norway, yet politically it may be moving closer. Iceland is a European country with long and deep democratic roots. As a member of the European Economic Area it has already adopted and implemented an estimated two-thirds of the EU's “acquis communautaire”. Given Iceland's advanced state of economic integration with the EU, accession negotiations could progress fast. But it’s up to the people and their political leaders to decide whether they want their country to apply for EU membership. And of course there will be some challenging issues to deal with, notably in the area of fisheries.
This year could well be the year of south east Europe and of the EU’s new Eastern Partnership, even though many challenges still lie ahead. As for Europe's north-western corner, Iceland is already among the EU's closest partners and has its natural place in Europe, with exactly what that place will be for Iceland itself to decide.