Europe’s chance to become a global climate champion

The Kyoto Protocol was a landmark in the global fight against climate change and it has been the main reference point for international debate on the subject for years. However, the first commitment period to fulfil pledges to cut greenhouse gas emissions between 2008 and 2012 only came into force a few months ago. For the next four years, those countries that ratified the protocol will be busy delivering on their binding promises. Meanwhile, the political debate has moved on – and rightly so. Kyoto was crucial, but it was only a first step. According to scientific evidence compiled by the International Panel on Climate Change, it will require strenuous efforts well beyond the Kyoto horizon of 2012 to limit temperature increases to 2o Celsius. This is now widely recognised. With Europe promising to lead the way beyond Kyoto, the eyes of the world will be on the Europe Union in 2008 to see how effective a lead we will take.

It is right that the world should be looking to the EU for leadership. Europe shares responsibility for the world’s current climate problems, accounting for approximately 14% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Cutting European emissions will make a substantial contribution towards worldwide efforts to reduce carbon levels – even though it cannot reverse global warming by itself. The EU also has good reason to act. Not only have we made commitments to the rest of the world, but we have a strong self-interest in combating climate change. Europeans are no strangers to extreme weather phenomena such as drought, forest fires and floods.

What, then, will the EU’s role be post-Kyoto? First, we need to ensure broader international participation in efforts to reduce carbon emissions. Kyoto was ratified by 175 countries, but this apparently impressive figure tends to exaggerate the impact of the protocol. Only 31 of the countries (Annex 1 Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) that ratified it are committed to cutting greenhouse gases by some 5% below 1990 levels by 2012. These 31 countries together represented less than 25% of global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in 2005. The Kyoto Protocol was not ratified by the US, until recently the largest carbon-emitting country in the world. Nor does the protocol bind certain major emerging economies – including China, India and Brazil – to any specific reductions. In reality, therefore, Kyoto only addressed a limited part of the problem, despite its great political significance.

MATTERS OF OPINION

In the South, EU public opinion is hotting up on climate change The plethora of news reports concerning, what Appaers to be, an increasing frequency of extreme weather events around the world have propelled the issue of climate change high up the agenda. In a recent Eurobarometer survey, carried out by The Gallup Organization, nearly nine out of 10 Europeans admitted that they were worried about climate change and global warming. Fifty percent said they were “very” concerned, while 37% others expressed “some degree” of concern. Interestingly, some of the countries in southern Europe – Greece, Spain, Cyprus and Malta – were the most concerned; the Scandinavians, Poles, Latvians and Estonians were the least worried. Somewhat surprisingly, given their low-lying situation, Dutch people were one of the least likely EU countries to be “very concerned”. Most Europeans say EU should take the lead and promote clean energy Twice as many people believed that measures to deal with energy issues should be decided at the EU rather than at the national level, and over 80% supported Europe setting minimum targets for the share of renewable energy in Member States. Twice as many (61%) also thought the share of nuclear power should be reduced from its current one-third share of energy supply, compared to those who believed it should increase (30%).  http://www.gallupworldpoll.com/

This fundamental limitation is aggravated still further when projections about future carbon emissions are taken into account. The 31 countries that accepted CO2 targets under Kyoto are projected to account for less than 15% of the world’s fuel-combustion carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. The first requirement of a post-Kyoto agreement, therefore, is to make sure it is truly global, with participation of all major emitting economies.

Winning the battle against climate change will require all major industrialised countries to share a vision about the need for deep emission cuts and a global understanding that everyone will be made to contribute; the world has a responsibility to act in common. However, it is equally clear that different countries will have different degrees of responsibility, according to their respective levels of economic development. The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, for example, talked about a “common but differentiated responsibility” for combating global warming. This principle remains fundamental to the process of reaching a new global consensus.

In the struggle against global warming, the people of Europe will expect the EU to take a lead and to deliver on its promises. Failure would risk alienating EU citizens from European institutions and may even harm the very concept of the Union. Likewise, the world will look to Europe to push the international agenda forward and to demonstrate that it is possible to cut carbon emissions while also maintaining welfare spending and economic growth.

Time is short. According to the timetable confirmed at the UN climate conference in Bali in December 2007, efforts to agree a new ambitious global accord will reach an initial peak in Poznan, Poland, next December and will culminate at the scheduled Copenhagen UN Climate Change Conference one year later. Thus December 2009 is the deadline for reaching a post-Kyoto arrangement that will effectively engage all major emitting countries in the global effort to combat man-made climate change. Europe is deeply involved in this process and has already set the world an example by agreeing post-Kyoto carbon reduction targets. In March 2007, the European Council agreed EU emissions would be cut by 30% below 1990 levels by 2020 as its contribution to a global and comprehensive agreement.

However, Europe’s legitimacy as a global leader on climate change will simply not depend on setting targets; the EU will have to deliver on them too. This year will witness painful negotiations on the Commission’s proposal for burden sharing, hopefully with an agreement in place later this year. Europe will also explore and develop flexible market instruments to widen the potential for emission reductions. The EU is ideally placed to push market mechanism forward; we are currently embarking on a second generation carbon emission trading scheme. Much was learnt from the first phase and the second-stage centralised scheme should both improve market efficiency in the EU and pave the way for global emission trading.

The EU should also demonstrate to the world that tackling climate change is not just about making negative choices. Global warming creates opportunities too, with new low-carbon technologies and production methods able to increase industrial competitiveness and economic growth. Denmark, for example, has achieved 70% growth since the early 1980s without increasing energy consumption and while transferring 15% of overall energy production to renewable sources. During this period, Denmark has created one of the most competitive economies in the world. Thus the development of eco-friendly technologies, renewable energy and energy efficiency technology is not only part of the answer to the climate challenge, it is also an important source of jobs and wealth creation. This positive outlook is shared at the European level, where climate and energy are one of four priority areas for the EU’s growth and employment strategy. We must continue to set the world an example and show that climate change is not an obstacle to economic expansion but also a part of the solution

Making an economic success out of the climate challenge will, however, require continued investments in research and development and a sustained push for innovation. Also, if we are to ensure the necessary up-take of new climate-friendly technologies, we will have to promote and invest in energy-efficient buildings, make the right long-term investment decisions about transport and energy and develop the right mix of green instruments. This will require an effective and ambitious framework. This framework must strive to make Europe the world’s testing ground for the green, market-based energy solutions of tomorrow. Member states do not lack imagination in this regard; lots of initiatives are already being taken in the pursuit of greener energy. We need to tap into each other’s best ideas and turn them into winning solutions for us all. Thus we need to increase cooperation on technology, research and development, diffusion and transfer of technologies.

While the EU must set the pace on clean technologies and market instruments, we should also make sure that we adapt our policies towards third countries. The EU is already a world leader in development assistance and in funding the Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol; this is one area we will have to pay particular attention to in future. Most developing countries only contribute marginally to greenhouse gas emissions, but they are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Severe weather threatens food production, fragile ecosystems and scarce water resources, and therefore jeopardises our efforts to alleviate poverty and reach the millennium development goals. These dangers need to be systematically reflected in our choice of policies and programmes, and efforts to mitigate climate effects must be given much more prominence.

The post-Kyoto period is already well underway. The EU has set itself an immense challenge as a world leader in the fight against climate change. Together with the US and other advanced economies, the EU will have to shoulder responsibility for a significant slice of the necessary carbon reductions while also maintaining economic growth. We will also have to assist developing countries to play their part and help them to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change which are already under way. This will be one of the greatest challenges for the EU in the years to come – one that will have a direct bearing on perceptions of the EU, both among Europe’s citizens and worldwide. We have the means and the responsibility to act. In the months and years ahead, we in the EU must demonstrate that we are up to the task.