VIEWS FROM THE CAPITALS

Spring 2008

by John Peterson

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Some Britons say that Gordon Brown’s distaste for matters European, which was so apparent during his long reign as Chancellor of the Exchequer, will fade now that he’s Prime Minister. Ian Kearns of London’s Institute for Public Policy Research offered an optimistic view of Brown’s “EU vision” in the last issue of Europe’s World.

So is Europe about to get what it has lacked ever since the Single Market project, the UK showing leadership on issues that matter? The answer is almost certainly “no”. The British debate about the European Union has turned sharply negative. Gordon Brown’s “vision” of EU policy is defensive, anxious and unaccommodating − if it exists at all.

Unfortunately for the pro-Europe camp, Brown is bound by one of the iron laws of EU politics − political leaders who are weak domestically make poor European partners. And Gordon Brown faces severe political problems at home, all of which have a European dimension.

First, he has defined himself more in contrast to Tony Blair than to the opposition Conservative party leader, David Cameron. The effect is to alienate the Blairite power centre within the Labour Party, which was always more pro-European than Brown and his allies. It also prevents Brown from contrasting his own policies with the Conservatives’ Europhobia, which sometimes borders on xenophobia.

Second, Brown committed a terrible political blunder when he allowed expectations to build that he would call an early election in autumn 2007. Opinion polls had shown his popularity on the increase during the summer when he competently handled a series of crises, including prolonged flooding and a terrorist attack at Glasgow airport. But the polls quickly turned against him after a brilliant party conference speech by Cameron and a Conservative pledge to roll back a much-hated inheritance tax. Brown was forced into a humiliating retreat on the election date. His climb-down coincided with the EU summit in Lisbon, where Brown loudly defended the various “red lines” exempting the UK from provisions of the Lisbon Treaty, as well as a ferocious campaign led by the populist Sun newspaper for a UK referendum on the treaty. It looks as though Brown will now have an uphill struggle even to get parliament to ratify the new treaty.

Third, Brown as premier robs the Labour government of one of its trump cards: Brown as chancellor. His successor, Alistair Darling, seemed a safe pair of hands until he announced changes in capital gains tax that will discourage risk-taking and long-term investment. Darling’s decision provoked furious domestic opposition, even among sections of the Labour-aligned trades unions. These reforms will undo much of Brown’s own tax regime, which had been presented as a beacon of competitive tax rates to promote entrepreneurship in Europe. They are almost entirely at odds with the Lisbon agenda.

A fourth big problem for Brown is brewing in the north. His native Scotland is now ruled by the Scottish National Party, not Labour. The SNP has consistently been Britain’s most pro-EU political party, apart from the question of fisheries, and stands by its old slogan of “independence in Europe”. It is committed to holding a referendum on independence and has embarked on nation-building policies designed to prepare public opinion for a split from England. Events in Scotland highlight Brown’s own Scottish origins and play badly in middle England constituencies where the next UK election will be won or lost. Scotland’s decision to end medical prescription charges, for example, has led some English MPs to ask why their voters should pay higher taxes so that Brown’s fellow Scots can get medicines for free.

It would be wrong to say there is no chance that Gordon Brown might have a change of heart over Europe. Brown’s choice of foreign secretary, David Miliband, is thoroughly European. He has floated the idea that the EU might be renamed the “Environmental Union” and provide the main platform for British efforts to deal with climate change. On development policy, too, Europe seems the best route for Brown to achieve his long-held aspiration to aid poor nations, particularly in Africa. It is still early days for Brown’s premiership. With a general election ruled out before 2009, he has plenty of time to define his so-called “vision for change”. So far, however, the government’s focus is very much inward, rather than outward-looking. The chances that Gordon Brown eventually will adopt a great new pro-European strategy are – for the moment − slim to none.