Ever since the western Balkans’ emergence from the violence of Yugoslavia’s demise, the region has exhibited a growing democratic maturity. Elections have successfully been held in the region, and most states have seen peaceful changes of government. Some of these governments are unstable, but then so are many coalitions elsewhere in Europe. The democratic transition in south eastern Europe is today clearly irreversible.
The security situation, too, has stabilised. The focus has shifted from military conflicts to justice and internal affairs. The main military challenges are how to downsize national armies without causing social disruption, how to convert the military industrial complex to civilian use and how to build confidence between armed forces that in some cases were still fighting only a few years ago. Outright military confrontation is almost inconceivable today, and this is a real success story that is worth telling.
MATTERS OF OPINION |
Mixed views in the Balkans on EU's benefits
Just two of the seven western Balkan countries – Croatia and Macedonia – are official EU candidate countries. But while Gallup’s Balkan Monitor showed that joining the Union was seen as a good thing by two-thirds of Macedonians, in Croatia it was mostly viewed neutrally, with the largest group (38%) saying it would be neither a good nor a bad thing. In the western Balkans, Croatians showed the least support for the EU, followed by Bosnia and Herzegovina, where just under half of the respondents showed support. The most enthusiasm was shown by Kosovo, where 89% supported membership and Albania with 83%.
http://www.gallupworldpoll.com/ |
The international outlook for south east Europe is also very different from a decade ago. After NATO intervened in the Yugoslav conflict, the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe was founded to provide crisis management. The uneasy truce was at first only possible thanks to intervention by the U.S. and the European Union. Now, countries across the region have a clear European perspective and multilateral contacts between national governments are well established.
Despite years of progress, however, the work of the region’s good neighbours is not over yet. Numerous bilateral conflicts still exist and peaceful relations between these societies are far from guaranteed. Slovenia is the only ex-Yugoslav state to have joined the EU so far, and the membership prospects of the others remain clouded. The fight against organised crime is in most of these countries another formidable challenge, and one which has direct implications for the rest of Europe. Reminders of the bad old days returned only recently, when journalists were killed in Croatia in broad daylight on the streets of Zaghreb.
Probably the greatest concern for south east Europe as a whole, though, is the economy. Important foundations have been laid to improve the region’s economic situation, and growth rates have risen substantially. But the pace and sustainability of this expansion are cause for anxiety, especially in the current financial crisis. Development in the western Balkans has been uneven, and what direct foreign investment there is it has been spread unequally. The income gap between rural areas and the capital cities is still sometimes very wide, and parts of the region suffer from high unemployment and serious shortages of investment capital. International loans to increase investment will inevitably become even harder to obtain now that the financial impact of the global banking crisis is worldwide.
Right across south east Europe the brain drain and migration to other parts of Europe and further abroad constitutes a major headache. Also, a lot of infrastructure is still missing. In the transport sector, highways are being built but the railway network is not functioning well and there is a conspicuous lack of a regional airline system. In energy, the region is heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas imports and therefore vulnerable to Moscow’s habit of behaving on occasions like an imperial overlord. Proposals exist to build new supply pipelines, but political conditions will decide if they are even to be realised. Continued regional development requires stability and yet more economic reforms, combined with a stronger focus on the social consequences of the current situation.
All these economic difficulties should not, however, obscure the progress achieved so far, nor should the vital contribution of the international community be overlooked. Development has relied on coordinated international support, particularly from the EU, and this will continue to be of critical importance. The Thessaloniki summit in 2003 between the EU and the western Balkans made clear that regional cooperation was a precondition for eventual integration into the European Union. The Central European Free Trade Association has now established a market of 55m consumers, and the current initiative for an Energy Community of South Eastern Europe is a training ground for future integration into the internal European energy market. It should be seen as a form of pre-emptive sectoral integration into the EU. |
Such economic preparations cannot, of course, answer the big question: When will south eastern Europe become part of the EU proper? That will probably remain unclear for several years yet. The EU has outlined a roadmap in the context of the Stabilisation and Association Process, but the timetable depends on a multitude of factors, including many outside the region’s control. The troubled ratification process of the EU’s Lisbon Treaty is clearly a stumbling block and the EU is also still coming to terms with some of its newer member states, particularly Bulgaria and Romania. A degree of enlargement fatigue may be quite natural after the EU’s successive expansions in 2004 and 2007, but the EU’s difficulties with Sofia and Bucharest are having a knock-on effect in the western Balkans. Corruption is obviously a big challenge in both countries and it is now quite clear that improvements to internal administrative systems will not only have to be tougher but also scrutinised far more closely by the European Commission. These problems are making it harder for non-EU neighbours to strengthen their links with the Union and be accepted as mature partners in the accession process. Even though the governments in question are fighting these problems, sometimes the “old boys networks” in these countries prove very resilient, so it will take time to change the political and judicial elites as well as the business communities.
Where does this leave the countries of the western Balkans on their long road to EU membership, and what are their prospects in the foreseeable future? The basic position of each country is pretty well known. Croatia is an official candidate country and accession negotiations are most likely to end in 2009. But the Zaghreb government must still address a number of outstanding issues; some concern privatisation, but mainly they are questions about justice and home affairs. Macedonia is the only other official candidate country, but the start of its formal membership negotiations is being held up by neighbouring Greece due to the long-running dispute over the state’s name as Athens insists the name Macedonia belongs uniquely to its own northern province. Land-locked Macedonia’s other main problem is a serious lack of foreign direct investment.
All the other ex-Yugoslav states are “potential candidate” countries; Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Montenegro have Stabilisation and Association Agreements with the EU. The situation in Albania is improving rapidly, but the country still has to catch up with its neighbours after a relatively late start. The EU says Serbia must extradite General Ratko Mladic to stand trial for war crimes before its Stabilisation and Association Agreement will be ratified, but generally Belgrade is considered to be moving in the right direction.
Obviously, significant issues remain outstanding for Kosovo. The territorial status of Kosovo was unilaterally resolved by its declaration of independence on February 17th of last year, and since then internal developments have been better than expected. The EU’s EULEX mission concentrates on issues of justice, internal affairs and the protection of the Serbian minorities, but it is now more important to improve the administrative, economic and social situation. Even if attempts to attract inward investment to Kosovo are successful, it will be impossible to create enough jobs for the whole working age population. Some 70% of Kosovo’s population are less than 30 years old, so its unemployed youth will many of them be forced to leave the country. Uncertainty also surrounds the implementation of the UN’s Ahtisaari paper on Kosovo. Serbia still needs to develop some sort of exit strategy that will allow it to drop its political commitment to the claim that Kosovo is still part of Serbia. Until a solution is found, Kosovo risks becoming a black hole on the Balkan map, unable to take part in cooperative ventures with the rest of the region. That would help neither Kosovo nor the other Balkan countries. |
Bosnia-Herzegovina presents a bigger problem. It is inconceivable that Bosnia could enter the EU with the “Bonn powers” of the High Representative still in place. Progress will therefore depend on a gradual withdrawal of the High Representative from active intervention in the political decision-making process. For the moment, it is unclear how the different political partners can come together. The country is still divided, with very different structures in the Republica Srbska and the Federation. Bosnia-Herzegovina started with a population of 4.5m inhabitants, which is now down to 3.4m; it appears that the people are not convinced that there is a future for their country. To put it bluntly, those who remain will have to decide that they want to belong to a single country before other positive developments can take place
The future of the western Balkans within the EU is therefore still in the balance. On the one hand, the region will have to wait on developments in Brussels and other EU capitals. On the other, the most essential decisions lie within the region’s own grasp. These countries still have further to travel in the right direction and they have to be able to stick with the Copenhagen-criteria for EU membership. Perhaps the next year or two may mark a turning point on some of the outstanding issues to be resolved before countries in south eastern Europe can expect to join the EU. In a world preoccupied by economic recession and the global banking crisis, EU leaders will tend to forget about their troublesome neighbours, but the Balkans nevertheless remains part of Europe, and will loom ever larger on its list of unfinished business.