Think tank europe

The agricultural and the democratic transitions. Causality and the Roundup model

08/07/2009
Author : The Kiel Institute for the World Economy (Germany)
By Erich Gundlach and Martin Paldam
 
Long-run development (in income) causes a large fall in the share of agriculture commonly known as the agricultural transition. We confirm that this conventional wisdom is strongly supported by the data. Long-run development (in income) also causes a large increase in democracy known as the democratic transition. Elsewhere we have shown that it is almost as strong as the agricultural transition.

Recently, a method has been presented to weed out spuriousness. It makes the democratic transition go away by turning income insignificant, when it is supplemented by a set of formal controls. We show that the same method makes the agricultural transition go away as well. Hence, it seems to be a method that kills far too much, as suggested by the subtitle. This suggestion leads to a discussion of the very meaning of long-run causality.

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Wednesday, 08 February 2012
Europe's World - AUTUMN 2011 - #19
The Autumn 2011 issue of Europe's World is out!

We feel it's fair to say that few if any publications in the field of international relations and policy debate have grown as fast or widened their scope so remarkably as Europe's World.

Our 100,000 readers worldwide are drawn from politics, government, business, the media, universities and NGOs.
 
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