COMMENTARY

Spring 2010

by Knut H. Alfsen

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Nick Mabey argues that Europe should move ahead and implement policies such as those that made up the EU Climate Package adopted in December 2008. He also argues that we need to focus much more on infrastructure ranging from buildings and utilities to roads, railways, airports and harbours because whether we can meet emission targets will in the long-term depend on the quality of that infrastructure. Investment in new low carbon infrastructure and green infrastructure banks (GIBs), he argues, will make it easier to lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Mabey’s arguments are only valid in some respects. The climate would benefit if European nations were to adhere to the blueprint he outlines, but it is far from clear that Mabey is right when he states: "the low carbon economy will on balance increase employment and economic activity."

Analyses of "green growth" and transition paths towards low carbon economies have only recently been initiated, and many people still resist the low carbon economy because they think it will lead to job losses. Reducing emissions will carry a cost, but the cost will be minimal compared to the cost of possible climate change damage. Business as usual is not an option. The 2003 heatwave in Europe in was a reminder that extreme weather reduces productivity as well as causing fatalities.

When Mabey says "a just transition must be ensured where jobs are protected and industry losses are minimised", we must remember that a large and rapid transition is likely to distort current industrial structures. While job numbers and industry production volume might be maintained in a transition to a low carbon economy, the types of jobs and the nature of the industry will certainly change.

Much will depend on how the other main international players respond to climate change. If the U.S., China and India move slowly toward low carbon societies, it is hard to see Europe moving quickly without large transitional costs.

Where I certainly agree with Nick Mabey is that if we are to be sure of continuing public support we must explain very clearly the sort of transitional economy that is needed. We must engage the public in discussion of the measures that can meet the challenge of climate change. That’s the only way we’ll be able to put in place the right policies with the necessary urgency.