THE ARAB WORLD

How Europe could alter the Arab-Israeli 'political calculus'

Spring 2010
If the EU wants to make a real contribution to efforts to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict, says Ezzedine Choukri Fishere, it should consider imposing an ‘occupation tax’ on all dealings by Europeans with the Israeli settlements in East Jerusalem and the West Bank
Arab intellectuals and policymakers have often accused Europe of using financial generosity to cover up its political impotence over the Arab-Israeli conflict. If Europe is to be taken seriously as a global player, they argue, it must also flex some muscle when it delivers the banknotes. And in Arab eyes European officials implicitly plead guilty when their excuse is to point to Europe’s complex multilateral politics and bureaucratic EU decisionmaking. But Europe’s Arab interlocutors, are unimpressed by these explanations: they want Europe to stop just talking like a Great Power and start acting like one.

And that’s not likely to change. We Arabs will continue to play on Europe’s guilt feelings, just as EU officials will continue to seek ways to make Europe look like a coherent global actor.

 EW BACKGROUND BRIEFING

What the EU spends
on aid to the Palestinians 

The EU has been the largest aid donor to the Palestinians since the Oslo accords of 1993, when of the $2.4bn pledged to support the peace process 38% was from the EU. The deal at that time was that the U.S. would work on a political settlement while Europe focused on aid and state-building.

The European Commission’s 2000-2009 aid commitments to the Palestinian Territories amounted to €3.41bn, not including donations by individual EU member states. For 2008, €497m was committed, and the programmes co-ordinated by the Commission total about a quarter of all assistance to the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Most EU aid is now channelled through PEGASE, a European Neighbourhood Policy instrument set up in early 2008 to support the Palestinian Authority’s reform programme. Of €440m pledged by the Commission for 2008, €325m was through PEGASE to fund direct assistance for public services and infrastructure investment.

Whether this money will reach its targets remains to be seen. In recent years, the failure of the peace process has meant EU funds have been diverted away from capacity-building to repair war-damaged infrastructure and meet basic humanitarian needs.

Relief payments already form a large part of the budget: the EU provided over half the 2008 budget of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), set-up in 1949 to help Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, Syria and Jordan, as well as those in the West Bank and Gaza.

Corruption within the Palestinian Authority and the recent split between the PA and Hamas have compounded the problem, especially for the people of Gaza. Here, the EU pays the salaries of doctors, nurses and teachers, but also those of Palestinian Authority officials who have been unable to work since Hamas seized power. Money is being wasted as long as the political situation is unresolved.

An international donor conference to fund the rebuilding of Gaza held in Sharm el-Sheikh in March of last year raised $4.4bn, including €436m from the Commission. The EU says it has fulfilled its pledge but that other countries, including many Arab states, have yet to fulfill theirs.

But more realistically we should stop asking the European Union to emulate a nation state. Europe cannot sponsor or lead a negotiation process between Arabs and Israelis, let alone impose a solution on them. What Europe can do is to focus on what it is more suited for, which is to influence the core dynamics of the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Over the last two decades, the EU’s desire to look more and more like a nation state has guided its position on the Arab-Israeli conflict in the wrong direction. Europe’s inability to play a political role in the Middle East peace process was wrongly diagnosed as resulting from a European bias towards Israel. Policy advisors argued that gaining Israel’s trust was necessary if it was to recognise that Europe should play a role in the peace process. Almost nothing became too dear to win this elusive trust; technology transfers, European quotas in the United Nations, association agreements, upgraded relations and even, reportedly, the prospect of joining the EU.

Driven by this irresistible desire to appear relevant, European policy revolved around seducing Israel while at the same time bribing the Palestinian Authority. Financing Israel’s occupation of Gaza and the West Bank served both objectives at the same time, at a cost to European taxpayers of several billion euros. Yet this policy earned Europe neither recognition nor relevance. Palestinians continued to trivialise Europe’s contribution, and Israelis to loathe it for ‘financing Palestinian terror’. So in the end Europe paid out a lot of money just to expose its own weakness. How much worse can things get before this counter-productive EU policy is abandoned?

The idea that Europe can seduce the occupier into giving it a role in ending occupation seems wrong-headed, while trying to convince Israel that Europe is even-handed is also a waste of time. Israel doesn't want an even-handed mediator but an unconditional supporter. This is partly why Israel prefers the United States as sole mediator, and it is also why its acceptance of a monopoly role for the U.S evaporates as soon as any American president starts developing views different from those of Israel. When this happens, America’s inability to project power makes all the difference. In other words, no matter what blandishments are showered Israel, when push comes to shove it is the ability to use power - not charm - that determines whether or not an outside power has a say in Arab-Israeli peacemaking. Europe’s failure to play a role in resolving this conflict does not result from imagined anti-Israeli views but from the fact that the EU is not a state. States are not given roles; they acquire them by the power assets they can deploy in the service of their foreign policy. And Europe cannot deploy the type of power needed to tilt the balance in Arab-Israeli peacemaking.

But it can do other things. The EU can enhance its influence if it abandons the fantasy of acting like a state and instead trades visibility for effectiveness. Instead of being obsessed with participating at conferences (with three representatives speaking in ‘one voice’), Europe can if it chooses affect the dynamics at the core of Arab-Israeli peacemaking, help the parties face their existential challenges and still be faithful to its own principles and broader interests in the region.

The core dynamic of Arab-Israeli conflict is and has long been the inability of the parties to overcome their short-term political constraints and take decisions that are strategically sound but utterly unpopular.

The return to power In Israel of Likud, and the failure of the Obama Administration to get it to freeze West Bank settlements illustrate this dynamic. Strengthening Israel’s grip on East Jerusalem and the West Bank, as well as the Golan Heights, simply brings Israeli politicians more votes. Advocating withdrawal from these territories, which is a sine qua non condition for peace, drives away Israel’s voters. Palestinian rejectionist factions thrive on this just as much as their Israeli counterparts; so advocating concessions to Israel doesn’t win more moderate Palestinian politicians greater popularity either. On both sides, politicians agonise in private over the strategic concerns that are being undermined by short-term political realities. But there is little they can do about it; some call this leadership deficit and others a sane political calculation.

To change this dynamic, external players now need to influence the political calculus inside Israel and Palestine by lowering the political cost of peace and raising the cost of occupation and thus enabling politicians to choose peace. Israel’s preparedness to return Palestinian territories, with certain conditions, is the trigger for any meaningful Arab-Israeli conflict resolution process, but no Israeli government will be willing or even able to do that unless the political calculus inside Israel changes. Making withdrawal a tolerable political option (or making occupation a more costly one) is needed to start a meaningful peace process.

Europe has already tried incentives for withdrawal, but those incentives alone clearly will not do; the cost of occupation must also be raised. In plain English, an ‘occupation tax’ is needed. This would be different to applying sanctions, which in any case risk triggering a “Masada Complex" that would push Israel to further extremes. But a sanction targeting the tools of occupation – not Israel as a whole but the whole settlement’s enterprise and the violation of Palestinians’ human rights.

An ‘occupation tax’ should start with turning the current exclusion from EU preferential customs treatment of settlement’s products into a full-scale ban on imports from settlements – and any transactions with them. Companies and banks should be barred from doing business in or with settlements, and especially with construction companies and their suppliers. At the same time, pressure should be exerted on the government of Israel to end its financial assistance to settlements.

The ‘occupation tax’ should also include action aimed at ending the impunity that to all practical purposes is enjoyed by the Israel Defense Force (IDF). IDF officials argue that some level of human rights violation is inevitable during occupation and that the IDF record is not much worse than any other occupation army. They are right; an occupation cannot be sustained without the systematic violation of human rights. And this is precisely why these violations must be made costly: to signal to Israeli voters that the cost of occupation is bound to rise. This can be done if Europe supports ‘first’ the investigation of suspected war crimes and other violations by the IDF of international humanitarian law and, second, the establishment of international tribunals when those crimes occur.

Despite its apparent difficulties, this sort of occupation tax would be a wise policy option for Europe, and a blessing for Israelis and Arabs alike. It would send a clear message to Israel’s voters that Europe; while committed to the security of Israel, will not compromise its own standards by accommodating Israel’s imagined need to occupy Palestinian lands. At the same time, it would restore credibility to European claims that human rights standards are universally applicable, and would also help those people in Israel who are fighting for its soul and democratic ideals. An occupation tax alone is obviously not going to bring peace, but neither is negotiation. Both are needed and neither suffices alone.

Bringing the two sides to a new negotiation process, or even drafting a blueprint for a political solution, is something only the United States can do, with support – at best – from Europe and others. Yet affecting the internal political calculus in Israel is a task that Europe is more fit to lead. It is a role that Europe can afford, given its unique situation between being a constellation of states, who have shared interests and similar constraints, and a group of nations bound by principles and values. Such a role would better protect its broader interests in the Middle East and allow it to remain faithful to its values.



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2 COMMENT(S)
  • Re:How Europe could alter the Arab-Israeli 'political calculus'

Is the EU doing enough to put pressure on Israel to halt the settlements in Palestine?

What do you think?

By Europe's World - Vox Pop on 2/22/2010 12:12
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  • Re:How Europe could alter the Arab-Israeli 'political calculus'

To be a politician is not easy. You must have a good qyality and many people should know you. If there are no people that know you, how can they want to vote for you? bathroom vanities

By mike cunzha on 11/23/2010 09:47
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