Despite a few dissenting voices, Lithuania will toe the EU Line

Does the fact that Lithuania was the first to ratify the EU Constitution mean that Lithuanians are among the most enthusiastic Europeans? Opinion polls suggest we have the most positive attitude towards the EU of all 25 member states. From late Spring 2003 onwards, public support for EU membership has been at 70%, with no signs yet of disillusionment. Some might say this mostly reflects our continuing economic growth, although EU structural assistance and agriculture subsidies have also had a positive impact. Yet this positive attitude towards the EU in general should not be interpreted as an enthusiasm for the Constitution. The polls show a majority of Lithuanians unhappy about the decision of the Lithuanian parliament to ratify it.

The average Lithuanian's attitude towards the Constitution was indifference, at least until early 2005 when the parliamentary decision was taken to ratify. But the French and the Dutch "no's" have since rekindled the issue. The parliament's rather hasty ratification was motivated by the results of the last parliamentary elections in September 2004, when the new populist Labour Party got the biggest share of votes. The party is led by Viktor Uspaskich, a Lithuanian businessman of Russian origin who based its campaign on the anti-elitist feelings of voters in the countryside and in Lithuania's depressed small towns. Although the Labour Party did not directly challenge Lithuania's EU membership, it advocated a review of the membership negotiations. The upshot was that the outgoing parliament decided to ratify the EU Constitution for fear that the new parliament might not do so. This fear was exaggerated, but it nevertheless mobilized a majority of votes in the last parliament.

EU and NATO membership have been major political goals since the re-establishment of Lithuania's independence, and motivated the political and economic reforms of the last 15 years. The EU is our unquestioned development model, and there has been a broad consensus that it should be followed and not questioned.

This view has clearly contributed to Lithuania's success during the pre-accession period, despite the unfavourable economic environment of the late 1990s. At the same time, Lithuania is unique in having had no political parties during the last 10 years that opposed EU membership. The parliamentary consensus on EU accession afforded a high level of autonomy to the civil servants in charge of the pre-accession process, so it is perhaps not surprising that Lithuania was the best performing country in transposing EU law. But if Lithuania has been an almost perfect prospective member of the EU, where does public sentiment stand now that it is part of the Union?

Is Lithuania likely to take a more critical stance in the debate on the future of Europe, and in other EU debates? Not for the present, as it will take time. Although the domestic political scene in Lithuania is in constant turmoil, there has been no shake-up or renewal of the political class. The general public is still more interested in EU money than in questions about values and the EU's future. The bureaucracy is perhaps becoming more critical, but there are no incentives for civil servants to challenge the present mood. In the short term, therefore, Lithuania will dutifully support EU initiatives while focusing chiefly on such issues as the new neighbourhood policy.