Ivan Krastev’s article looks for solutions to the coming Balkan crisis, and for positive developments that might stem from it. In every crisis there is opportunity, and in this case the opportunity being offered to the EU is that of demonstrating that it has the political will to adhere to an enlargement strategy that holds the key to political, democratic, economic and other reforms throughout south eastern Europe. Sticking to its enlargement strategy is also the only way of building a greater and stronger European Union, and maintaining its international credibility.

 

The countries of the region are “as close to failure as to success”, says the International Commission for the Balkans. Slowing down the process of enlargement would not only be the wrong message for them, but would also bring into question the credibility of the Stabilisation and Association Process (SAP) and of the Thessaloniki agenda which held out the prospect of eventual EU membership to the five SAP countries, based on the "own merits" principle and raised the possibility of "catching up" with the present candidate countries. This commitment was reaffirmed by the European Council as recently as June of this year.

 

The framework of EU accession is the only working policy that Europe can apply in the Balkans. Speeding-up of the region-wide strategy for accession with clearly defined policy steps and measures also seems the only possible solution to the Balkans’ deteriorating political situation. It represents an external anchor for stabilising the region, and without the prospect of membership, even the present status quo is likely to become unsustainable. The risk is not just a deepening mood of euroscepticism but also the slowing down of democratisation and other reforms, a widening of the development gap, greater political instability and even the emergence of new conflicts.

 

The Balkans is a heterogeneous area where huge economic disparities demand of the EU a very differentiated strategy. Balkan countries are at different levels of democratic transformation, and their per capita GDPs range from less than €2,000 to around €7,000. The key for evaluating success is the progress made by each country in its implementation of European standards. Responsibility does not lie with the EU alone, the countries of south eastern Europe must take their share of it. To become part of the EU, they need to meet the Copenhagen criteria as well as the conditionality terms of the Stabilisation and Association Process.

 

Croatia’s preparedness for EU accession place it above the average for SAP countries, and thus deservedly a frontrunner for membership. As the only confirmed candidate, Croatia is something of a model for the other SAP countries and proof that meeting the criteria and achieving reforms are the only way of coming closer to accession. Croatia could perhaps play a role in stabilising the region. But in turn that makes it important to start negotiations and speed up the whole accession process once Croatia fulfils the last remaining condition. Croatia could then be followed by Macedonia, leaving the door open for the rest of the region once the other countries are also ready. An essential part of these preparations is that the EU’s association policies should include pre-accession funding to help the countries of the Balkans to move from technical adjustment and formal harmonisation to the development of greater economic capacities.