EUROPE
Europe’s third chance to get it right in the Balkans may be its last
Autumn 2005
Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister of Sweden who has also been the UN Secretary-General’s Special Envoy to the Balkans, says that eventual EU membership is the light by which all Balkan political system trying to navigate. If it fades or goes out, peace efforts will be doomed throughout the region, he warns
Commentary:
RELATED ARTICLES:
The year ahead brings with it the EU’s third opportunity to bring true stability and the conditions for progress to the Balkan countries of south eastern Europe. Whether this chance will be seized will depend to a very high degree on the policies adopted by the European Union.
No other part of Europe has had such a turbulent and tragic transition from its decades of socialist rule. Just as the first decade of the 20th Century was dominated by successive wars in the Balkans, culminating in the fateful summer of 1914, its last decade was dominated by the conflicts that rolled from Slovenia in the north to Macedonia in the south. Millions were forced to flee their homes, possibly hundreds of thousands lost their lives and entire societies were thrown into poverty and chaos. Suddenly, we could no longer talk about living in a post-war Europe.
At a momentous time of historical miracles in Europe – the peaceful reunification of Germany, the restoration of the independence of the three Baltic states – the failure to avert war in the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia was undoubtedly a very major failure.
It’s an open question whether it would ever have been possible to manage a peaceful transition from an old imposed order that clearly no longer worked to a new pattern of governance and integration in the region. When the dogs of war were loosed in a region so rich in myths and grievances, the task of reining them in proved beyond the capabilities of both European and American leaders.
It was a task made even more difficult by disagreements within the European Union and across the Atlantic. The stories of the early European recognition of Croatia and Slovenia, and in the US of the Clinton administration’s deliberate undercutting of peace efforts, are not among the most glorious of our time.
If this, the first chance of settling the different issues in the Balkans, ended in catastrophic failure, the second chance passed by without anyone really having the energy to take it up. It was in 2001, there had suddenly been a change of regime first in Zagreb and then in Belgrade, and it was obvious, just two years after the war over Kosovo, that the entire region was ready for a new start.
But there was no will in the international community at that time to take up the issues of the region. Policies on Kosovo that were characterized more by drift than by design, helped produce the conflict that flamed briefly in Macedonia that year before being settled with the Ohrid agreement. Ad hoc policies dominated the day. Four years on, several factors are coming together to produce the third major chance of settling the region’s outstanding issues and putting it on the path to peace and prosperity. There is also a widening recognition that the status quo in the Balkans is no longer sustainable.
This is most obvious in Kosovo, where during the coming year a thorough review of state-building efforts there will seek to settle the difficult issue of Kosovo’s status. But there is no way that this can be settled in isolation from other outstanding issues in the region, notably the Balkans’ path towards integration with the European Union.
The same applies to the future of the union between Serbia and Montenegro. Unfortunately, it is clear that the present EU-brookered arrangement isn’t working, and it will be up to Belgrade and Podgorica during the coming year to agree either to a functioning separation or to a functioning federation.
And a decade after the war in Bosnia ended with the Dayton peace agreement, there are good reasons to review the international mechanisms for assisting its development. The Dayton agreement wasn’t only about ending a war, but also about building a peace through a common (although highly decentralized) state. And it was about giving refugees a chance to return home and about reviving the economy.
By the time this article reaches its readers, more will be know about Croatia’s chances of opening accession negotiations with the European Union. They were scheduled to start in March, but failure to cooperate in the handing over of people like General Gotovina who have been indicted by the UN war crimes tribunal has held the process up.
The Croatia issue clearly illustrates the dilemmas now confronting European policymakers. On the one hand, beginning accession talks is highly desirable, as by placing the goal of full EU membership within reach they will solidify reform both in Croatia and throughout the Balkans region. On the other hand, it is hard for the EU to compromise on demands that are central to putting such people on trial for war crimes, and thus hopefully contributing to reconciliation in the region. There can’t be different standards for different countries.
This autumn we will also see the European Commission’s opinion on Macedonia’s membership application. In theory, and if other issues can be sorted out, a green light should be possible towards the end of this year.
There is no denying the central importance of eventual EU accession to the entire reform, reconciliation and reintegration effort in the Balkans. EU accession is the light by which all Balkan political systems try to navigate, so if that light were to fade or go out alltogether, the risk is very real that peace efforts would be doomed in one country after another. I don’t think we would see an immediate return of war in the region, but neither would we see that self-supporting peace and stability that is so desperately needed.
So it is of great importance that the European Union should be ready to move forward with a region-wide accession concept that brings in all countries while taking into account the differences between them. It is no longer enough just to repeat the EU’s so-called Thessaloniki Commitment that one day they may all become members. That day seems too far off for some to serve as an inspiration for today.
One possibility is to move on from the present patchwork of Stabilisation and Association Agreements – to be negotiated with Serbia, too, later this year – towards a more multilateral arrangement that could be based on making the whole region part of the EU’s customs union and other associated policies. In much the same way as we have seen the customs union driving parts of the Turkish reform programme, so could it do much the same for the Balkans.
An arrangement based on the customs union could include other “chapters” of EU integration, thus de facto speeding up eventual accession.
With this as a basis, it should be possible for individual countries to move towards accession once the political criteria have been met. With weak state structures in parts of the region, this may demand more robust state building policies than the Union has so far developed. What is needed, in the phrase of the International Commission on the Balkans, is member state building policies.
With such a framework and policies, it ought to be possible to move the entire region towards integration into the European Union, even though at different paces. Croatia is obviously ahead, with Macedonia following, while it is equally obvious that both Kosovo and Albania have a considerable way to go until they meet the criteria. Serbia and Bosnia fall somewhere in between, but can catch up if the right policies are put in place.
The Balkans have been the scene of some of the worst international failures of modern times, and the region is rightly described as the litmus test of the European Union’s ability to create peace and the conditions for prosperity. Next year’s third chance to do so must not be missed; It could yet be the true hour of Europe in the Balkans.