Sir,
Mark Almond is right on many points regarding his analysis of Turkey’s attitude towards Europe; doubts certainly have arisen over the EU’s sincerity in its dealings with Turkey. The EU is sending mixed signals, and while relations between Turkey and both the EU and US have improved slightly after America’s support for the Turkish incursion into northern Iraq, they are still in rough water.
Mr Almond also has a point when he contends that the AKP government is making an effort to build more cordial relations with its Islamic neighbours. In my view, the reasons for this are twofold. First, the AKP has because of its Islamic roots a greater affinity with these countries than its secularist predecessors. Second, it is also a strategic choice − the government is raising the Turkish value for the EU. With the influence it has acquired in the Middle East, Turkey is cleverly emphasising how much the EU has to gain in geopolitical terms by accepting it as a member state.
I do not agree, however, with Mr Almond’s interpretation of the implications arising from these points. In the final analysis, there is no real alternative for Turkey but the EU. Neither Russia nor the Turkic-speaking countries or the Middle East can replace the EU – at least not in an economic or a political sense. Politically, there is a broad consensus in Turkey that its orientation should be westwards, even if there is criticism of Turkey’s western partners. Since its foundation, the Turkish Republic has been looking to the west. To break this tradition would be inconceivable for a majority of the country’s population, and for the elite. The EU is the only bloc in the region where freedom of religion is guaranteed, and this makes it an irreplaceable partner for the AKP, for which freedom of religion is one of its main ideological pillars.
The EU would also benefit from Turkish accession. It is in the union's interest to entrench Turkey as a stable democracy inside Europe, instead of allowing it to become a less stable country on its borders. The EU’s ambition is to be a global player in energy, climate and foreign policy. Turkey is an important asset in all three of these. Turkish accession would underline the inclusive character of the EU − a union in which Muslims have a place next to Christians, atheists and others. It could help to convince Muslims from all over the world that the EU is not anti-Islam.
Europe’s political leaders should publicly admit it is in the interest of the EU to take in Turkey, and that is essential in the light of today’s sceptical public opinion. The formula of 2003 and 2004, when Turkey and the EU were working harmoniously on the Turkish reform process, should be restored. This would clear the road for accession. Provided that major divisions in Turkish politics and Turkish society can be overcome without rocking the boat too much, Turkey can be expected to fulfil the Copenhagen criteria in not more than a decade.