COMMENTARY

Autumn 2009

by EL Sayed A Shalaby

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The Middle East once again at a cross-roads, and Denis Bauchard’s article makes it clear that the region’s future will depend on the outcome of two basic issues; a just settlement for the Palestinian issue, and progress towards a plural and democratic system of government in the Arab World that can make poverty, unemployment and corruption things of the past.

The most positive extend development has been the coming of the Obama Administration and its determination to activate the peace process on the principles of the two states solution and the freezing of any more Israeli settlements. But American good intentions alone won't resolve the Arab-Israeli problem, the U.S. clearly needs the support of such other international players as Europe, Russia and China. And although the international environment is now more encouraging, the Israeli-Palestinian situation is not. The coming to power of President Obama coincided with the arrival of a right-wing coalition in Israel headed by Binyamin Netanyahu, an ideologue well known with his obstructive attitude towards a peace settlement, and appears to be ignoring the freezing of settlements in the West Bank and Jerusalem. At the same time, the rift between Palestinian factions is complicating any chance of meaningful new negotiations, and explains why Egypt has been exerting so much effort to promote Palestinian reconciliation.

So far as the EU’s role goes, it’s important to recall the European Council’s mid-June statement on the Middle East peace process after it met in Luxembourg. The EU’s leaders adopted Barack Obama’s line on both the two states solution and on the freezing of Israeli settlements, but it is also clear that the EU must also be ready to use its diplomatic, economic and technological leverage to influence Israel. Without this, Israel will continue to regard the EU as a lightweight and disregard its demands.

Denis Bauchard’s article speaks of the "dark scenario" in which he conjectured on the consequences of Iran’s increased influence. His scenario seems all too possible unless the tensions conflict between the U.S. and Iran can be defused and a solution to the Iranian nuclear programme reached. Genuine dialogue between Iran and the U.S. is also needed if such other issues as Iraq, Afghanistan and the Arab-Israeli conflict are to be resolved.

Bauchard’s analysis of the influence of the Islamic movements in the region is hard to contest. They certainly represent a real factor which may determine the future political shape of the region. Islamic movements such as the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt are alarmingly well-organised, although my own assessment of mainstream public opinion in Egypt is that it remains liberal and moderate. I would therefore expect that in any free election in Egypt, the Muslim Brothers will not gain more than 20% of the votes, and much the same might be said of Hamas in the aftermath of its experience in Gaza.

The real challenge that faces the Arab governments is how to assimilate the Islamic movement, particularly the more moderate elements into the political fabric of their societies.