COMMENTARY

Autumn 2009

by Abdulkhaleq Abdulla

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I agree with Richard Youngs' assertion that EU policymakers are making a huge mistake by taking for granted as important an emerging market as the Gulf. The importance of the six GCC states of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and the United Arab Emirates as suppliers of oil and natural gas and as trade partners and investors with what amounts to the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world is beyond question. The EU would be well-advised to be more forthcoming in its future dealings with the GCC, recognising it not just as an emerging market but also as a credible stabilising force in a turbulent Middle East.

The starting point for a more important GCC- EU relationship is, of course, the speedy completion of the long overdue Free Trade Agreement (FTA). The EU has been all along a very demanding and even condescending negotiator. It has been utterly nonsensical to infuse a purely political clause into a purely trade agreement. Frustrated, the GCC states have walked out of the free trade talks, with no breakthrough expected in the tedious FTA negotiations which began 18 years ago.

Crucial as the FTA is, the relationship between the EU and its member states and the energy-rich GCC has the potential to go far beyond trade. It is imperative that the two trading blocs should engage in an ongoing multi-track dialogue that would address common concerns and address strategic challenges too. Of great importance to the GCC side are such issues as a more assertive EU role with regard to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the ending of 60 years of Israeli occupation of Palestine. The GCC expects the EU to revisit its attitude towards Israel, and to come to terms with the simple fact that so long as it supports Israel blindly, peace will not be achieved in the Middle East.

The EU also needs to be less timid when it comes to regional security issues. It is about time for it to take its geopolitical responsibilities seriously and carves out for itself a clearly visible posture on the Gulf’s security dilemma. The starting point for this would be a more proactive profile in relation to the upcoming dialogue between Washington and Tehran. It is in the best interests of both the EU and the GCC that Europe should play a central role in the pending 'Grand Bargain" between Iran and the Obama Administration. Involvement in the bargain would enhance Europe’s stature if the concerns and interests of both EU and the GCC are accounted for.

The EU and the GCC could also set to work on other pending challenges that are of mutual interest. Together they can be instrumental in addressing the current economic recession, implementing the G20 agenda and reordering the priorities of global governance in the 21st century.

A broadening of the dialogue and the adoption of a common approach to these issues would advance future cooperation between EU and the GCC in areas other than trade and commerce. And It would certainly help to smooth over some of the misunderstandings now reflected in the highly contentious 1000-page FTA document that now languishes in a political limbo. And these commercial issues will most likely go nowhere if they continue to be dealt with by the low-level EU policymakers who tend to treat the GCC as a ‘forgotten friend’.

Even the best of friends do not remain friends forever if the conditions are wrong. If the EU does not act swiftly, especially on the FTA, the GCC states have many other old and new friends around and some, like the U.S. are much more strategically important than the EU. New friends like the Asians are much more forthcoming than the EU in terms of welcoming the GCC as trade partners. The bottom line is that the GCC states have all the options at their disposal, so the message to Brussels must be “stop neglecting your best friends”. The ball is now finally in the EU’s court.