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Are EU concerns about a Tory victory justified?
15/03/2010
Author : Richard G. Whitman
 
The United Kingdom is in the middle of a general election campaign – without the election itself having yet been called. All the main political parties are already pitching for votes with the opposition Conservative Party the front-runner in the polls. The UK’s business leaders are distancing themselves from the current government and public administration is in lock-down to avoid being seen to be doing anything that might offend the future leaders.

The prospect of a Conservative Party government in the UK has been viewed with concern in capitals across the Union, driven by the perception that it is a party deeply hostile to the EU and further European integration. This view was reinforced by the decision of the Conservative Party to leave the European People’s Party group within the European Parliament and to seek new allies; a move which resulted in the formation of the European Conservatives and Reformists Group.

However, it is possible to over-state the possible negative impacts on the UK’s relationship with the European Union of a Tory victory. This is primarily because whatever government wins the General Election will need to focus first and foremost on restoring the dismal public finances in the UK which have dramatically deteriorated because of the UK government’s bail-out of a set of failing banks. As its most important market, the UK badly needs an EU economy that is firing on all cylinders in order to drive the recovery of Britain’s economy, which is badly lagging behind the other large European economies in coming out of recession. Consequently triggering a crisis for the EU by seeking to alter the terms of UK member of the Union would be a self-defeating self-indulgence for any Tory government. The Conservative Party’s leader David Cameron has already shown his pragmatism by withdrawing a pledge to hold a UK referendum on the contents of the Lisbon treaty.

Belt tightening and reduced levels of public expenditure in the UK look set to last for at least a decade to cover the enormous costs of the bail-out of UK banks. A key area in which this will be necessary is defence expenditure. There is already a widespread perception in the UK that there are insufficient resources available for the British armed forces deployed in Afghanistan; a theme which replays frequently in the British media and especially when there are new British casualties in Afghanistan. This is coupled with the residual hostility to the UK’s military involvement in Iraq (and kept very much in the public’s mind with the ongoing Chilcot public inquiry that is investigating the British government’s decision to go to war) and a lingering perception that the then Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, under-resourced the military.

With this as a backdrop the UK has embarked on a Strategic Defence Review – the first formal review of defence priorities for over a decade - to which all political parties have already committed. The first stage of this was the issuing of a (consultative) Green Paper in February entitled Adaptability and Partnership: Issues for a Strategic Defence Review. The EU features prominently in the Green Paper, whose intention is to trigger a wide debate on future orientation and, by implication, resourcing priorities for the UK defence posture and capabilities.

This represents something of an opportunity for the UK partners within the EU – and especially France. The Lisbon treaty provisions on permanent structured cooperation that encourage member states to pool defence capabilities in selected areas could start to take on an especial appeal for a cash-strapped UK-government – even if that administration is led by the Conservative Party.
 
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