”Young
people, they are starting to think that ethnic divisions are normal ...
if something doesn't happen to change this, there will be no change.” (Emin Mahmutovic, civic activist)
Despite
international community's state building efforts in Bosnia the country
is splitting parts Since war 15 years ago foreign aid has exceed USD 80
bn for artificial creature designed in Dayton agreement aiming
multi-ethnic state with EU perspective. As a result Bosnia is now even
more divided, with less national identity, 20 percent of population
living under the poverty line, with a nightmare triple administration
plus international supervising making the country as worst place in
Europe to do business west of Ukraine, even as it seeks to join the
European Union. (Bosnia this year ranked 116th in World Bank's ease of
doing business index.)
Some historical background
Bosnian
war (1992-95) included massive transfer of populations so it was
possible to draw new boundaries according ethnic groups. Armed conflict
between Yugoslav, Croatian and Bosnian forces and militias, accompanied
by massive human rights abuses and violations, led to the displacement
of over a million people and the creation of ethnically homogeneous
areas within the newly independent – or better say international
protectorate - Bosnia and Herzegovina (later Bosnia or BiH).
Dayton
Agreement was made 1995 after bloody war had almost finished ethnic
cleansing/transfer of populations so that it was possible to draw
administrative boundaries according ethnic groups. The agreement split
Bosnia into two semi-independent entities – the Serb dominated
Republika Srpska (RS) and Bosniak-Croat populated The Federation of
Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) federation. The Croat-Bosniak federation
is further divided into 10 cantons, each with its own parliament and
government responsibility for local issues.
Administrative nightmare
In
general elections on 3 October 2010 will be elected Bosnia and
Herzegovina's three presidents—a Bosnian, a Serb and a Croat—and its
two houses of parliament. The Federation (FBiH) alone has three levels
of government (federal, cantonal and municipal) each of which has
executive, legislative and judicial authority; 13 prime ministers and
14 legislatures. The result is a dense bureaucracy, whose various parts
function in competition or open conflict with one another, and a
suffocating thicket of confusing and often contradictory legislation
and regulation.
- The
three points of the triangle represent the nation’s three ethnic
groups: Bosniaks, Croats, and Serbs. The triangle itself represents the
geographic shape of the nation itself. The colors represent neutrality
and peace, whereas the stars represent Europe.
Each
part (RS and FBiH) has its own parliament, government and president but
the two are linked by weak central institutions. The Serb Republic and
the Muslim-Croat Federation and three ethnic groups – Croats, Serbs and
Bosniaks – are trying to lead state together and separately. And one
could also add, that international supervision is still effective
through "Office of High Representative" (OHR).
Ethnic tensions still alive and increasing
While
earlier dispute was between Serbs and Bosniaks, last years have showed
serious dissension between Bosniaks and Croats and ethnic divisions are
deepening at time when Bosnia-Herzegovina is on the stage of transition
from an international protectorate to one responsible for its own
reform dynamics. Instead of developing its “European perspective”,
Bosnia-Herzegovina going backwards remaining an unwelcome,
dysfunctional and divided country, with an aggrieved Bosniak (Muslim)
plurality, a frustrated, increasingly defensive Serb entity, and an
anxious, existentially threatened Croat population.
Before
Bosnian war the region was quite secular and multi-ethnic, mixed towns
and even marriages were common. Now people live in segregated Muslim,
Croat and Serb communities, even in same town the pupils are going to schools of their own ethnic origin. Education,
which should foster a multicultural society, has instead been
manipulated by each ethnic group. There are separate education
ministries, and each draws up its own ethnically based curricula and
textbooks. Now it's common to see young Muslim girls with scarf which earlier was common only by older Muslim women.
While
most Bosnian Croats already have Croatian passports and since Republika
Srpska residents can apply for and obtain Serbian passports with access
e.g to Schengen area, the Bosniaks with passport of Bosnia-Herzegovina
can travel visa free only to half of countries compared to their
country men with foreign passports.
Radical Islam as issue
One
aspect making Bosnia unstable is religion. The question is not only
divisions between Catholics, Orthodox and Islam views, but at the
center of the issue is the Wahhabi sect, an austere brand of Islam most
prevalent in Saudi Arabia and practiced by bin Laden and the Taliban.
Wahhabis have been establishing a permanent presence in Macedonia,
Bosnia, Kosovo, Serbia, Croatia and even in Bulgaria. The presence of
radical Muslims in Bosnia is linked to the advent of mujahedeen foreign
fighters who joined Bosnian Muslims in their battle against the Serbs
in Bosnia's 1992-95 independence war. After Dayton Saudi-backed
charities were funding the movement as well investments.
- Al Qaeda organized El Mujahedeen Unit in Bosnia in 1995 consisted of 1,700 troops and was part of the Bosnian Muslim Army.
In
Bosnia, the issue of Wahhabi influence is one of the most politically
charged debates, with Bosnian Serbs maintaining there is a huge
presence of Wahhabis in the country and Muslim Bosniaks downplaying the
issue and at times claiming it does not exist. Bosnia's official
Islamic Community has been successful in curbing Wahhabi influence
saying that even Wahhabi influence reached its peak in 2000 it has
since started falling e.g. with measures taken by Bosnian authorities
after 9/11.
On the road to Dissolution
During
last 15 years international community has squandered more than USD 80
bn to build a multi-ethnic state with some European standards, a
country which would have clear perspective to become EU member-state.
War-damaged buildings have been replaced with new glass and steel
high-rises. However, as I described earlier, divisions and even
tensions are increasing between ethnic groups, the war memories are
still fresh, the common understanding about history is missing as well
any national identity. In
Sunday's elections, the voters will include 18-year-olds who have no
memory of the war, but many of them live in segregated Muslim, Croat
and Serb communities, they have maybe never met anyone from the
other two ethnic communities. A dysfunctional administrative system
especially in FBiH has paralysed decision-making, put the entity on the
verge of bankruptcy and triggered social unrest.
Rival
nationalist parties of the country's three ethnic groups have a firm
grip on power without any real perspective of national consensus. The
international community has long insisted that more powers be
transferred to central institutions in order to make the country more
functional, but Bosnian Serbs strongly reject such moves and insist on
retaining their autonomy and even gaining independence with same
standards which western powers used in Kosovo case. Bosnian Serb leader
Milorad Dodik took the discussion a step forward recently, saying that
Bosnia was surviving only due to international intervention and that
the time had come to discuss its peaceful dissolution. Also leaders of
FBiH's Croatian parties have over the past few months renewed calls for
a separate Croat entity in BiH.
Lessons learned for elections
“I
know that we are in a difficult campaign for elections. But after the
elections, Bosnia’s political leaders, the new government ….will have
to make important choices to prepare themselves, to reconcile with
European standards and requirements,” (Spanish FM Miguel Angel Moratinos)
Related
to European standards Bosnia is applying already some practices from
newest EU member-state Bulgaria. Or what can one think about following
quote from Sofia News Agency Novinite:
An
"innovative" vote-buying practice crafted ahead of Bosnia and
Herzegovina's general elections on October 3 has been described as
"Bulgarian train" by the press in Sarajevo. The vote-buying scheme
called "Bulgarian train" includes a party activist who hands out filled
ballot papers to votes before the polling stations. The voter is
supposed to cast the filled ballot, and to bring out an empty ballot
from inside the polling station; upon handing the empty ballot to the
activist of the political party, the voter receives the promised
payment for selling their vote. Then, the political activist fills the
empty ballot paper, and hands it to the next willing voter, and the
"Bulgarian train" keep rolling throughout the entire election day.
It
is unclear exactly why this vote-buying technique described in the
Bosnian press has been named "Bulgarian train" but the general
association of vote-buying with Bulgaria is easy to explain as
Bulgaria's 2009 EU and national elections were plagued with vote-buying
allegations, though only a couple of sentences.
Conclusion
According European Commission's last country report (e.g. in my Document library ) Bosnia and Herzegovina
urgently needs to speed up key reforms. The country’s European future
requires a shared vision on the overall direction of the country by its
leadership, the political will to meet European integration
requirements and to meet the conditions which have been set for the
closure of the OHR.
Both
in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kosovo many local stakeholders see
implemented rules illegitimate and foreign-imposed – and they are
right. Internationally imposed solutions are not sustainable, to get
real progress the inter-ethnic agreements must be made at local level.
In my earlier article Bosnia collapsing? I concluded following:
Can
any country survive without some minimal mutual self-identification
across its citizens as a whole? If the shared non-ethnic Bosnian
identity is taking steps backwards does this not mean that this
artificial western desk-drawer plan is doomed to fail? I am afraid so
but maybe it is loss only for those top level designers not for local
population.
International
Crisis Group estimates that continued worsening of relations among
Bosniak, Croat and Serb leaders, compounded by a fiscal meltdown after
the 2010 elections, could transform public dissatisfaction into ethnic
tensions and violence. I am not so pessimistic the possible outcome
could be peaceful dissolution. This should be facilitated also by
international community if it is ready to accept de facto situation on
the ground more than sticking to old dysfunctional agreements.
Sources:
International Crisis Group report 28.08.2010
WSJ article
Some of my earlier articles:
Bosnia collapsing?
Srebrenica again – Hoax or Massacre?