The  original version has been published on the Italian webmagazine Lo Spazio della Politica

A former Italian diplomat, Boris Bianchieri, recently defined Europe and Turkey as “The eternally betrothed”. Brussels and Ankara have been looking for each other for 46 years. However, like Manzoni’s novel, you can always rely on a local baron to break up the wedding party.

Four years ago, when the European leaders decided to step up the negotiation agreement to a negotiation for membership, Nicolas Sarkozy – at that time Minister of the Interior – said “if Turkey was European, everybody knows it!” That statement was launched to legitimise people’s unrest at President Chirac, who was favorable to the Enlargement. This issue has become a matter of principle of the French President’s foreign policy. Sarkozy might well veto Turkey’s accession in the future. France’s objection is only one of many obstacles to the Turkey’s accession bid.

The progress report published by Enlargement DG in October shows that only one chapter out of 35 has been closed (Research), many others are suspended and some others are not open yet. When it comes to human rights issues there are both good points and bad points. Freedom of the press is still a sensitive issue. Many journalists and writers had been prosecuted in the past on the basis of article 301 of the Turkish criminal code (e.g. Orhan Pamuk).

Although this article is invoked less frequently than before, the judiciary is still quite conservative and the rift between the government and the press is as serious as ever.

One example concerns the Dogan group, the first private broadcaster in the country. They launched a media campaign against the moderate Islamic party of the Prime Minister Erdogan and accused him of financing the party with a German slush fund. The Prime Minister called for a boycott against Dogan and the Finance Ministry made a provision for fiscal evasion against Dogan, an action which jeopardized the solvency of the group. This reaction has evidently worried the Commission

Some advances in the move towards enlargement have been made by the Turkish side especially when it comes to the normalization of relations with its neighbors. Among the most relevant successes are the recent diplomatic steps towards the normalizing the relationship with Armenia, once again using “football diplomacy”. Armenian genocide is no longer a taboo in Turkish political opinion. Both sides agreed to submit to a bilateral independent committee of historians. Evidently, the pressures exerted by the Armenian Diaspora in some Western countries like France or the US had become too embarrassing.

The strategy of the new Foreign Ministry Davutoglu has been accused by his critics to be a sort of new- Ottomanism in opposition to the traditional Kemalism. The reality is simpler. Turkey is aware of its strength and legitimately exerts its power in a regional context.

Prime Minister Erdogan frequently calls for freedom of movement in the Middle East, but his self-confidence often gives rise to misunderstandings. The critical speech he made in Davos against the Israeli government on the issue of Gaza or his inconvenient friendship with Iranian President Ahmadinejad are cases in point Nevertheless Brussels has always encouraged this spirit of openness and Ankara's will to solve regional conflicts demonstrated by the AKP government .

Nicolas Sarkozy refused to open the chapters of negotiation related to the membership and proposed a privileged partnership. This option has been interpreted by Davutoglu as an insult. What is the solution then? Not far from Ankara – mythology tells us – the famous Gordian knot could be found, cut by Alexander the Great. Certainly the Cypriot issue is no less intricate and only a political agreement can solve the vicious cycle of the current talks. In the accession negotiations 8 chapters were formally blocked by the EU in 2006 because of the embargo placed by Ankara against the Greek-Cypriot boats. That policy has been practiced by Ankara since the conflict of 1974, as has the division of the island which pushed Turkey to recognize only its Northern Part. However, since the accession of Cyprus this measure became a violation of the Association Agreement with the EU because that means also a free trade area. In conclusion, only an agreement on the Cypriot reunification will push Ankara to recognize the new State and unblock the stalemate.

Last weeks visit of the Italian President Giorgio Napolitano in Turkey highlighted Rome’s support of Ankara’s candidacy for EU membership. Many other countries, for instance Spain, UK and Sweden share the same position. President Napolitano prophesized, like Manzoni’s Friar Christopher “The day will come” when Ankara will be in Europe. By now that prospect is still uncertain.