Greek and Turkish Cypriots have been negotiating a settlement to end the 35-year division of Cyprus, invaded by Turkey following inter-communal strife, for more than a year with little apparent progress. The island is the only divided country in Europe and its capital, Nicosia, is also split in two. Turkish Cypriots voted massively in favour of a UN-arranged reunification deal in 2004, but it was rejected overwhelmingly by Greek Cypriots. The Cyprus problem has a direct bearing on Turkey’s ailing bid to become a full EU member as it has to open its airports and ports to Greek Cypriot traffic and recognise the Republic of Cyprus, an EU member since 2004 (the EU acquis do not apply in the internationally unrecognised Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in the north of the island). The protagonists involved in the negotiations, directly or indirectly, are the most pro-reunification set ever, but each side has red lines it is not prepared to cross and each accuses the other of intransigence. There is a unique window of opportunity, but one that will not remain open for ever. Time is running out as there is an unofficial deadline of next April when the Turkish Cypriot leader faces re-election and could be defeated by a more hard-line candidate. Even if there is some kind of agreement, it is by no means certain Greek Cypriots will approve it as they are less motivated to do so than Turkish Cypriots, whose attitude towards reunification is also hardening. The Cyprus problem is likely to come to a head during Spain’s Presidency of the EU in the first half of 2010.

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