To tackle the difficult legacy of the Bush administration in the Middle East, the Obama administration set out a flexible strategy, whereby it would not follow any particular sequence, but would work on the various outstanding crises in parallel. In this perspective, the Israeli-Palestinian issue acquires a somehow central and independent role with respect to other regional crises. The administration launched an important diplomatic initiative in the spring of 2009 with the intent to make Israel and the Palestinians resume talks in the fall and come to an agreement. However, this initiative did not succeed. The first part of the paper discusses the reasons why it failed and the options left to the administration. It pinpoints the convergences and divergences with respect to the available options between the new U.S. administration, the European countries and the EU, and Turkey.
The paper points out that keeping up the present truce and possibly turning it into a cease-fire, while aiming to re-establish the conditions for a political dialogue in the longer term by means of a confidential diplomacy, may be the most realistic approach. It is also an option that can both take advantage of transatlantic bonds and promote them. The paper stresses, however that whatever option the United States picks and whatever the policies it decides to implement, both Europe’s and Turkey’s strategic convergence with respect to the whole region will be influenced by the level of priority the United States is willing and able to attribute to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Low priority will generate loyal yet passive support from Europe for the United States’ overall engagement toward the Middle East. Yet, it might collide with Turkish national interests and increase emerging differences with Ankara throughout the region. In this sense, Obama’s policy toward the Israeli– Palestinian conflict may affect the coherence— especially in the case of Turkey—and the quality— in the case of Europe—of transatlantic bonds. The second part of the paper considers Euro– Mediterranean relations and, more generally, EU policies toward the area. These policies have failed to set up a framework of political cooperation to contribute to the solution of the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. On the contrary, EU policy has fallen hostage to the conflict, and this has prevented Mediterranean political cooperation from developing. On the other hand, the European Union has failed to include Turkey among its members so as to provide the country with a secure mainstay with respect to the Middle East. While a timely redirection of EU policy toward Turkey seems improbable, the paper argues that the launching of the Union for the Mediterranean (UfM) could be helpful for both European and transatlantic policy aims, on condition that it is aptly reformed.
In conclusion, the paper maintains that the transatlantic perspective on the Mediterranean and the Middle East can hardly be homogeneous, as it is inherently affected by the differences in focus and interests of the transatlantic stakeholders. In particular, there is an asymmetry in the relationship between the United States and the EU/Europe stemming from the fact that, for the United States, Mediterranean cohesion is not seen as essential to resolving problems in the Middle East, At the same time, EU support for stability in the Middle East is important yet not decisive for the United States. American action to solve the Israeli- Palestinian conflict is clearly decisive for the EU in the Mediterranean. Within the transatlantic circle, Turkey seems bent on a more independent path than Europe. On the whole, even with these differences and asymmetries, the outlook for transatlantic cooperation in the Mediterranean and the Middle East is positive.
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Roberto Aliboni is vice president of the Istituto Affari Internazionali and head of the Mediterranean and Middle East Program.
This analysis is one product from an ongoing strategic partnership between the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) focused on Mediterranean issues and strategies.