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Under pressure from a rebellion, an international intervention, and
comprehensive sanctions, Muammar al-Qaddafi's regime is on the verge of
collapse. As of late March 2011, regime forces are focussed on retaining
control of north-western Libya, raising the prospect of protracted
civil war and partition. Qaddafi's demise is a necessary, but not
sufficient, condition for Libya's renewed stabilisation. The
post-Qaddafi state will essentially have to be built from scratch.
However, political players will likely be more focussed on the
redistribution of wealth than on building state institutions. Scenarios
for the post-Qaddafi era include a new deal among former regime elites
that would lead to renewed instability in the medium-term, or a more
protracted, but ultimately more sustainable, state-building process.
Hastening Qaddafi's fall should be the main priority of Germany and
other EU member states now. External actors should also support the
Interim National Council as the nucleus of a post-Qaddafi government.
However, they should refrain from playing an active role in the
state-building process that will follow Qaddafi's demise, as this would
risk discrediting the process.
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