SWP Comments 2011/C 21, August 2011, 4 Pages
In July 2011 ISAF began transferring security
responsibilities to the Afghan government. While NATO countries view
this process with calculated optimism, four entirely negative scenarios
are becoming probable. A "power oligarchy" could develop, either
directly out of the current leadership (Scenario 1) or with the
political participation of the Taleban (Scenario 2). It is also
conceivable, however, that the country could relapse into a "civil war"
after 2014, the prospective end of the ISAF mission (Scenario 3); or
into a renewed "Taleban emirate" (Scenario 4). Which of these
developments will occur depends on several influencing factors: the
internal risks within Afghanistan; future ISAF strategy in the
asymmetric war; and the nature of long-term US engagement in
Afghanistan.
Download here